December retail sales surged 2.5% to $69.6 billion, marking the strongest monthly gain since mid-2022! The increase was seen across all nine subsectors, led by:

Food & beverage retailers (+3.5%)
Motor vehicle & parts dealers (+1.9%)

The GST Holiday Effect
Much of this growth was fueled by the GST/HST holiday, which encouraged shoppers to delay purchases until mid-December. But the surge didn’t last long—January’s early data shows a 0.4% decline in retail sales.

What’s Next?
Experts warn that economic uncertainty and trade tensions (especially concerns over Trump’s potential trade war with Canada 🇨🇦🇺🇸) could impact consumer confidence and spending.

Will the Bank of Canada Cut Rates in March?
Given this strong retail performance, many economists now believe the Bank of Canada will keep rates steady in March instead of cutting them.

Current Market Odds: Only a 30% chance of a rate cut in March!

But with high housing costs, upcoming mortgage renewals, and potential trade issues, some analysts believe this is just a "pause" before rate cuts resume later in 2025.

What do you think? Will the Bank of Canada delay rate cuts further? Let’s discuss!