Canadian inflation has dropped significantly over the past four months. Excluding shelter, it's just 1.6%. The job market was strong in April, but the unemployment rate continues to rise. Despite job growth, it's not keeping up with the influx of working-age immigrants. Canada's GDP growth for Q1 2024 came in at 1.7%, falling short of expectations. This lower growth increases the likelihood of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates next week.
Monetary Policy:
Remains restrictive. Homeowners face higher monthly payments upon renewal. The housing market is slowing, with new listings surging as buyers await rate cuts. The odds are even that the Bank of Canada will cut the overnight policy rate in June or July. This is crucial for the housing industry.
GDP Growth:
Tracking below the Bank of Canada’s forecast. Even worse on a per capita basis. Economic weakness will likely continue as households and businesses feel the impact of earlier rate hikes. The federal government's plan to reduce the temporary resident population could further slow expansion. The Bank of Canada should consider cutting the overnight policy rate in June to avoid a steeper slowdown.
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Alexander Gasenko - your trusted Toronto & GTA mortgage broker. Dominion Lending Centres Maple Mortgage Group Independently Owned & Operated — FSRA# 13415